Here’s an interesting point of discussion: QB value as opposed to draft position. Given the vast number of QBs that are drafted season over season (11.7 per year over the last 10 years), the limited number of starting jobs, and the constant struggle to find a QB who’d actually worth using, why do teams always draft so high? Is getting the “Right Guy” through the draft actually as important as it’s made out to be, or can you get that player elsewhere?
Before we get started, we need to accumulate some simple data and make it usable. We’ll be tracking clear QB quality among starters in 2020, whether a starter is with their drafting team during 2020, and whether they will be returning to that team in 2021. These stats, once amalgamated, will help determine the value of acquiring a quality player to start at QB from the NFL draft, as opposed to getting one via trade or Free Agency.
| Division | ||||
| AFC East | Bills – Josh Allen 2018 (R1-P7) | Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa 2020 (R1-P5) | Jets – Sam Darnold 2018 (R1-P3) | Patriots – Cam Newton 2011 (R1-P1) |
| AFC North | Ravens – Lamar Jackson 2018 (R1-P32) | Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger 2004 (R1-P11) | Bengals – Joe Burrow 2020 (R1-P1) | Browns – Baker Mayfield 2018 (R1-P1) |
| AFC West | Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes 2017 (R1-P10) | Raiders – Derek Carr 2014 (R2-P36) | Chargers – Justin Herbert 2020 (R1-P6) | Broncos – Drew Lock 2019 (R2-P42) |
| AFC South | Texans – Deshaun Watson 2017 (R1-P12) | Colts – Philip Rivers 2004 (R1-P4) | Titans – Ryan Tannehill 2012 (R1-P8) | Jaguars – Gardner Minshew 2019 (R6-P178) |
| NFC East | Cowboys – Dak Prescott 2016 (R4-P135) | Giants – Daniel Jones 2019 (R1-P6) | Eagles – Carson Wentz 2016 (R1-P2) | WFT – Alex Smith 2005 (R1-P1) |
| NFC North | Packers – Aaron Rodgers 2005 (R1-P24) | Vikings – Kirk Cousins 2012 (R4-P102) | Lions – Matt Stafford 2009 (R1-P1) | Bears – Mitchell Trubisky 2017 (R1-P2) |
| NFC West | Seahawks – Russell Wilson 2012 (R3-P75) | Rams – Jared Goff 2016 (R1-P1) | Cardinals – Kyler Murray 2019 (R1-P1) | 49ers – Jimmy Garoppolo 2014 (R2-P62) |
| NFC South | Buccaneers – Tom Brady 2000 (R6-P199) | Falcons – Matt Ryan 2008 (R1-P3) | Saints – Drew Brees 2001 (R2-P32) | Panthers – Teddy Bridgewater 2014 (R1-P32) |
Clear-cut high-quality starting QBs pre-FA period, 2021.
| Division | ||||
| AFC East | Bills – Josh Allen 2018 (R1-P7) | Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa 2020 (R1-P5) | Jets – Sam Darnold 2018 (R1-P3) | Patriots – Cam Newton 2011 (R1-P1) |
| AFC North | Ravens – Lamar Jackson 2018 (R1-P32) | Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger 2004 (R1-P11) | Bengals – Joe Burrow 2020 (R1-P1) | Browns – Baker Mayfield 2018 (R1-P1) |
| AFC West | Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes 2017 (R1-P10) | Raiders – Derek Carr 2014 (R2-P36) | Chargers – Justin Herbert 2020 (R1-P6) | Broncos – Drew Lock 2019 (R2-P42) |
| AFC South | Texans – Deshaun Watson 2017 (R1-P12) | Colts – Philip Rivers 2004 (R1-P4) | Titans – Ryan Tannehill 2012 (R1-P8) | Jaguars – Gardner Minshew 2019 (R6-P178) |
| NFC East | Cowboys – Dak Prescott 2016 (R4-P135) | Giants – Daniel Jones 2019 (R1-P6) | Eagles – Carson Wentz 2016 (R1-P2) | WFT – Alex Smith 2005 (R1-P1) |
| NFC North | Packers – Aaron Rodgers 2005 (R1-P24) | Vikings – Kirk Cousins 2012 (R4-P102) | Lions – Matt Stafford 2009 (R1-P1) | Bears – Mitchell Trubisky 2017 (R1-P2) |
| NFC West | Seahawks – Russell Wilson 2012 (R3-P75) | Rams – Jared Goff 2016 (R1-P1) | Cardinals – Kyler Murray 2019 (R1-P1) | 49ers – Jimmy Garoppolo 2014 (R2-P62) |
| NFC South | Buccaneers – Tom Brady 2000 (R6-P199) | Falcons – Matt Ryan 2008 (R1-P3) | Saints – Drew Brees 2001 (R2-P32) | Panthers – Teddy Bridgewater 2014 (R1-P32) |
Still with the team that drafted them during the 2020 season.
| Division | ||||
| AFC East | Bills – Josh Allen 2018 (R1-P7) | Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa 2020 (R1-P5) | Jets – Sam Darnold 2018 (R1-P3) | Patriots – Cam Newton 2011 (R1-P1) |
| AFC North | Ravens – Lamar Jackson 2018 (R1-P32) | Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger 2004 (R1-P11) | Bengals – Joe Burrow 2020 (R1-P1) | Browns – Baker Mayfield 2018 (R1-P1) |
| AFC West | Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes 2017 (R1-P10) | Raiders – Derek Carr 2014 (R2-P36) | Chargers – Justin Herbert 2020 (R1-P6) | Broncos – Drew Lock 2019 (R2-P42) |
| AFC South | Texans – Deshaun Watson 2017 (R1-P12) | Colts – Philip Rivers 2004 (R1-P4) | Titans – Ryan Tannehill 2012 (R1-P8) | Jaguars – Gardner Minshew 2019 (R6-P178) |
| NFC East | Cowboys – Dak Prescott 2016 (R4-P135) | Giants – Daniel Jones 2019 (R1-P6) | Eagles – Carson Wentz 2016 (R1-P2) | WFT – Alex Smith 2005 (R1-P1) |
| NFC North | Packers – Aaron Rodgers 2005 (R1-P24) | Vikings – Kirk Cousins 2012 (R4-P102) | Lions – Matt Stafford 2009 (R1-P1) | Bears – Mitchell Trubisky 2017 (R1-P2) |
| NFC West | Seahawks – Russell Wilson 2012 (R3-P75) | Rams – Jared Goff 2016 (R1-P1) | Cardinals – Kyler Murray 2019 (R1-P1) | 49ers – Jimmy Garoppolo 2014 (R2-P62) |
| NFC South | Buccaneers – Tom Brady 2000 (R6-P199) | Falcons – Matt Ryan 2008 (R1-P3) | Saints – Drew Brees 2001 (R2-P32) | Panthers – Teddy Bridgewater 2014 (R1-P32) |
Likely still starting with the team that drafted them post-2020 (Retirement counts as starting in this case).
| Division | ||||
| AFC East | Bills – Josh Allen 2018 (R1-P7) | Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa 2020 (R1-P5) | Jets – Sam Darnold 2018 (R1-P3) | Patriots – Cam Newton 2011 (R1-P1) |
| AFC North | Ravens – Lamar Jackson 2018 (R1-P32) | Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger 2004 (R1-P11) | Bengals – Joe Burrow 2020 (R1-P1) | Browns – Baker Mayfield 2018 (R1-P1) |
| AFC West | Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes 2017 (R1-P10) | Raiders – Derek Carr 2014 (R2-P36) | Chargers – Justin Herbert 2020 (R1-P6) | Broncos – Drew Lock 2019 (R2-P42) |
| AFC South | Texans – Deshaun Watson 2017 (R1-P12) | Colts – Philip Rivers 2004 (R1-P4) | Titans – Ryan Tannehill 2012 (R1-P8) | Jaguars – Gardner Minshew 2019 (R6-P178) |
| NFC East | Cowboys – Dak Prescott 2016 (R4-P135) | Giants – Daniel Jones 2019 (R1-P6) | Eagles – Carson Wentz 2016 (R1-P2) | WFT – Alex Smith 2005 (R1-P1) |
| NFC North | Packers – Aaron Rodgers 2005 (R1-P24) | Vikings – Kirk Cousins 2012 (R4-P102) | Lions – Matt Stafford 2009 (R1-P1) | Bears – Mitchell Trubisky 2017 (R1-P2) |
| NFC West | Seahawks – Russell Wilson 2012 (R3-P75) | Rams – Jared Goff 2016 (R1-P1) | Cardinals – Kyler Murray 2019 (R1-P1) | 49ers – Jimmy Garoppolo 2014 (R2-P62) |
| NFC South | Buccaneers – Tom Brady 2000 (R6-P199) | Falcons – Matt Ryan 2008 (R1-P3) | Saints – Drew Brees 2001 (R2-P32) | Panthers – Teddy Bridgewater 2014 (R1-P32) |
Now, this is a lot of raw data to throw at you, so we’re going to boil it down into one, simple ranking system. We’ll take these previous factors, and stack them to dictate the odds of the QB you drafted being successful based on where they are drafted, and if they will continue to be successful for the team that took them. These rankings will be from 3 to 0.
| Division | ||||
| AFC East | Bills – Josh Allen 2018 (R1-P7) (3/3) | Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa 2020 (R1-P5) (2/3) | Jets – Sam Darnold 2018 (R1-P3) (1/3) | Patriots – Cam Newton 2011 (R1-P1) (0/3) |
| AFC North | Ravens – Lamar Jackson 2018 (R1-P32) (3/3) | Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger 2004 (R1-P11) (3/3) | Bengals – Joe Burrow 2020 (R1-P1) (2/3) | Browns – Baker Mayfield 2018 (R1-P1) (3/3) |
| AFC West | Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes 2017 (R1-P10) (3/3) | Raiders – Derek Carr 2014 (R2-P36) (3/3) | Chargers – Justin Herbert 2020 (R1-P6) (3/3) | Broncos – Drew Lock 2019 (R2-P42) (2/3) |
| AFC South | Texans – Deshaun Watson 2017 (R1-P12) (2/3) | Colts – Philip Rivers 2004 (R1-P4) (1/3) | Titans – Ryan Tannehill 2012 (R1-P8) (1/3) | Jaguars – Gardner Minshew 2019 (R6-P178) (1/3) |
| NFC East | Cowboys – Dak Prescott 2016 (R4-P135) (3/3) | Giants – Daniel Jones 2019 (R1-P6) (2/3) | Eagles – Carson Wentz 2016 (R1-P2) (1/3) | WFT – Alex Smith 2005 (R1-P1) (0/3) |
| NFC North | Packers – Aaron Rodgers 2005 (R1-P24) (3/3) | Vikings – Kirk Cousins 2012 (R4-P102) (0/3) | Lions – Matt Stafford 2009 (R1-P1) (1/3) | Bears – Mitchell Trubisky 2017 (R1-P2) (2/3) |
| NFC West | Seahawks – Russell Wilson 2012 (R3-P75) (3/3) | Rams – Jared Goff 2016 (R1-P1) (1/3) | Cardinals – Kyler Murray 2019 (R1-P1) (3/3) | 49ers – Jimmy Garoppolo 2014 (R2-P62) (0/3) |
| NFC South | Buccaneers – Tom Brady 2000 (R6-P199) (1/3) | Falcons – Matt Ryan 2008 (R1-P3) (3/3) | Saints – Drew Brees 2001 (R2-P32) (1/3) | Panthers – Teddy Bridgewater 2014 (R1-P32) (0/3) |
We get into the heavier number crunching here, so if it gives you a headache, we summarize it all at the bottom.
We’ll display these QBs by draft position and apply the fractions to each position before converting them to percentages to dictate probabilility.
High (Top 15 Overall)
(3 2 1 0 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 2 1 3 3) = 37/60 = .616
Mid-Late (16-32)
(3 3 0) = 6/9 = .666
Day 2 (2nd/3rd Round)
(3 2 3 0 1) = 9/15 = .600
Day 3 (4th – 7th Round)
(1 3 0 1) = 5/12 = .416
Overall available starting scores as a baseline should be calculated:
37+6+9+5 = 57
60+9+15+12 = 96
57/96 = .594 (Remember this number)
We’ll boil it down a little further. Here’s the data we’ve accumulated so far, which dictates the direct success rate of QBs in the modern era for a drafting team looking for a starting QB. [High (.616) Mid-Late (.666) Day 2 (.600) Day 3 (.416)] This data, crossed with the average number of QBs drafted each year (11.7), to find 32 starting QBs in an average of a 10-year full roster turnover. We remove 6 from that list of 32 to allow for outlier success rates (Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, etc) which makes 26.
The equation goes as follows:
11.7 QBs per year for 10 years (11.7×10=117)
26 Non-Outlier Starters
26/117 = .222 opportunity rate for new QBs.
This shows less than a quarter of the new QBs entering the league actually have a shot at a starting job in the NFL, so how is our current success rate for drafted players going to factor into this new percentile? Simple.
Drafted QB Opportunity/Drafted QB Success Rate = Starting QB via Draft
.222/.594 = .374
Convert to percentage and apply.
A quarterback drafted by an NFL team and given the opportunity to start during the regular season has a 37.4% chance of being worthy of a starting job on the team that drafted them.
To Summarize
This dictates that the success rate of QBs directly benefitting the team that drafted them is significantly higher than the actual opportunity rate given to drafted QBs. Players in the higher rounds are given opportunity at a higher rate, meaning more room for failure, and their success rate is dragged down as a group. Late-round picks, however, are rarely given opportunities at the rate higher-drafted QBs do. This leads to an inflated success rate because if a player drafted late gets a shot at starting, it usually means they’ve fit the system as a surprise, or developed at an above-expected rate. Quarterbacks drafted early succeed at a slightly higher rate than late-round picks due to overall on-field effectiveness, and a significantly higher rate due to opportunity given and time spent in the position.