The Super Bowl is truly an event like no other. From the game action, to the food, to the commercials, to the half time show, nothing beats Super Bowl Sunday. One of my personal favorite commodities of the Super Bowl is the prop bets. I mean seriously… what beats betting on the length of the National Anthem or if the coin toss will land heads or tails? Don’t get me wrong Super Bowl squares are great, but nothing beats the prop bets.
According to David Purdum of ESPN, an estimated 23.2 million Americans are expected to bet upward of $4.3 BILLION on this Sunday’s big game. So let’s take a look a some of these bets.
National Anthem Over/Under 1:59
The O/U for the National Anthem is currently 1 minute and 59 seconds. The current odds are -120 for each side. Something to note, the under has it in 11 of the past 13 Super Bowls, including last year when Demi Lovato finished in just 1 minute and 49 seconds. This year’s anthem will be performed by Eric Church and Jazmine Sullivan. I lean the under, and here is why. There are a couple of components that we need to remember. First, due to the pandemic there will be limited capacity at Raymond James Stadium, meaning less crowd whistling and cheering. This should increase the speed of the Anthem as the performers will not have to wait as long for the whistling and cheering to conclude. Also Jazmine Sullivan has sang the Anthem twice prior to this Sunday, and both times the under has hit. Roll with the under with the Anthem and let your money work for you.
Which Quarterback Will Be Shown First Tom Brady Or Patrick Mahomes
The fact that CBS is calling this game makes this prop very tough to call. Tony Romo loves to talk about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but this is Tom Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance and first with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hard to believe Tom Brady won’t be the first quarterback shown on the broadcast this Sunday.
The Coin Toss. Heads (-101) Tails (-101)
Oh baby, The coin toss! Oh would’ve thought the flip of a coin would have so many football fans glued to the TV? Over the past 54 Super Bowls, tails has a slight edge over heads. Tails has been called 29 times to just 25 for heads. During Tom Brady’s time with the Patriots they were just 2-9 on the coin flip. This year’s toss will be called by the Chiefs as they are the visiting team. In a true fate of 50-50 I go with tails. Why? Because tails never fails.
Will The Team That Wins The Coin Toss Also Win The Game? Yes (-110) No (-130)
Just 25 teams have won the coin toss and won the game in Super Bowl history, and the team that has won the coin toss has lost the Super Bowl in 6 straight seasons. The last team to win the Super Bowl and the coin toss was the Seattle Seahawks when they defeated the Denver Broncos. I think the Chiefs do in fact win the coin toss with a tails call, but as for the game… we’ll discuss that later.
Halftime Show- The Weekend Wardrobe Changes Over/Under 0.5. Over (-350) Under (+225)
This is an easy one, which probably is why see the over is such a heavy favorite. I full expect at least one wardrobe change.
Bill Belichick Name Drop Over/Under 1.5
Another easy one, slam the over. Bill Belichick and the Patriots will surely be mentioned more than once.
Total Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 331.5. Over (-115) Under (-115)
The forecast will be something to watch when it comes to game props as the chance of rain is up to 75% for Sunday. Mahomes averaged 316 yards per game through the air this season, and the last time these two teams met Mahomes threw for 462 yards 3 touchdowns but don’t let that number mislead you. Mahomes’ 462 passing yards was largely in part to Tyreek Hill’s 203 yard first quarter, and after that first quarter, Mahomes and the Chiefs really didn’t move the ball all that well. Also don’t forget, Mahomes only threw for 288 yards in last year’s super bowl. Assuming Hill doesn’t go for 203 yards in a single quarter I lean under for this prop.
Total Passing Yards For Tom Brady Over/Under 306.5. Over (-115) Under (-115)
Brady averaged 289.6 yards per game this season. Looking at the game against the Chiefs earlier this season, Brady threw for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brady has played the Chiefs 10 times over the course of his 20 year NFL career and in those games he is 5-5 and has averaged 256 yards per game. Despite a rather modest career average against the Chiefs, I do like the over on this prop. In his 9 career Super Bowl games Brady has averaged 315.3 passing yards per game and he has never had as many weapons surrounding him. I like the over for Brady on this prop.
Total Receptions for Travis Kelce Over/Under 7.5. Over (-140) Under (+110)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranked 21st in the NFL in defending Tight Ends this season. Tampa allowed 86 receptions to Tight Ends this season, 7th most in the league. When these two teams met in week 12 Kelce finished with 8 receptions for 82 yards. Covering Kelce is a tough task for any defense, especially one that has struggled against Tight Ends this season. I like the over on this prop.
Total Receptions for Mike Evans Over/Under 4.5. Over (-115) Under (-115)
Evans has hauled in 80 receptions this season including playoffs. Though he has been very efficient in the red zone, he has not been very consistent in terms of receptions. Evans has on topped 4.5 receptions 9 times in 19 games this season, and when the Buccaneers met the Chiefs in late November, Evans had only 3 catches. Consistency is the problem for me here, I like the under.
Point Spread. Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-210) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (+100)
Tom Brady vs Patrick Mahomes in a Super Bowl sounds about as exciting as it gets. Brady gets a shot at his 7th ring in his first year with Bucs, and Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs look to be the first repeat Super Bowl champion since Brady’s Patriots in 2003 and 2004. If this game is anything like the last time these two met, we are in for a thriller. Tampa Bay turned things around after a rather shaky start to the season and have scored 24+ points in 10 straight games. The Chiefs will be without star Eric Fisher as he will be out with an achilles injury. This is a brutal blow for the Chiefs as the Tampa Bay pass rush has been turning up the heat in the postseason. And looking back at the last time these two teams met, the game was a lot closer then some folks make it out to be. After out scoring the Buccaneers 17-0 in the first quarter, the Chiefs only scored 10 more points and won the game by 3 points. Not to mention, that was before the Buccaneers found their mojo. I love the Buccaneers in this game, especially with Tom Brady under center, who is 4-1 in his career against reigning Super Bowl champions. Also worth noting, the Buccaneers will be wearing white jerseys. The teams wearing white jerseys have won 13 of the last 16 Super Bowls. Roll with the Buccaneers and if you want better value, take them on the money line (+145).
What Color Gatorade Will Be Dumped On The Winning Coach?
Finally, the Gatorade shower. A tradition that started in 1986 when the New York Giants won their first Super Bowl with Head Coach Bill Parcells. The tradition is now performed by many sports, and has even made it to the prop bet sheets. Since 2001, orange has led the way, being dumped on the winning coach 5 times, followed by clear with 4, yellow with 3, and blue and purple with 2 a piece. Last year the Chiefs dumped Andy Reid in orange Gatorade following their win over the 49ers. Something tells me someone on that Chiefs sideline believes in superstition leading me to believe the Chiefs have orange on their sideline. As for the Bucs, I think they might get Coach Arians with red.