Tier 1 (If this guy is your quarterback, you are automatically a Super Bowl contender)
#1 Patrick Mahomes
He hasn’t won the Super Bowl the last two seasons, but no player gives their team more of a chance to win on any given Sunday than Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has redefined the way we evaluate the quarterback position and quarterback prospects. For now, he is still the gold standard of quarterback play in the modern-day NFL.
#2 Josh Allen
Josh Allen was in the midst of the greatest postseason run we have ever seen from a quarterback, but it was cut short after his defense refused to stop Patrick Mahomes from moving the ball 50 yards in 13 seconds. Allen finished his postseason run with 13 incompletions and nine touchdown passes. Josh Allen has improved every year of his career, and he looks absolutely jacked this offseason. Allen finishing the 2022 season as the #1 QB is not far-fetched.
#3 Tom Brady
While I’m sure most of us were ready for Tom Brady to call it quits, the fact that he’s still a top three quarterback in the NFL is a good indication that he made the right decision to keep playing football. At 44 years and 293 days old, Brady is positioned to make another Super Bowl run. The Buccaneers are currently the favorites to win the NFC at +320.
Tier 2 (If this guy is your quarterback, you should be guaranteed to have a really good record every season)
#4 Aaron Rodgers
Yet another disappointing playoff performance lands the back-to-back MVP in tier 2 instead of tier 1. While a lot of blame has gone to Rodgers’s teammates in the past, this past year, Green Bay needed Rodgers to lead them on one (1) scoring drive in the second half of the NFC divisional round. He couldn’t get it done. For that reason, Rodgers will start his 2022 season in tier 2.
#5 Lamar Jackson
It should be damn hard for a former unanimous MVP to be underrated, but that’s the case with Lamar Jackson. Jackson kept a decimated Ravens team afloat last year. In 2021 Lamar repeatedly did the one thing his critics said he could not do – lead the Ravens to come from behind wins.
#6 Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert is a tier 2 quarterback, which means the Chargers should be guaranteed to have a really good record every year he is at the helm. However, if there were ever an exception to the tier 2 rule, it would be these Chargers who find new and creative ways to lose football games every single year.
Tier 3 (If you put the right pieces around this guy, he can win you a Super Bowl)
#7 Matt Stafford
We know what we have with Matthew Stafford at this point in his career. Is he going to overthrow a deep post and put it into the arms of a safety once a game? Yes. Will he make ten other throws in that game that only a handful of quarterbacks can make? The answer to that is also yes.
#8 Russell Wilson
Russell “did you know he’s never received a single MVP vote” Wilson might finally get to cook in 2022. He finally moves out of Pete Carroll’s run-heavy system and is set to enter a very quarterback-friendly situation in Denver.
#9 Dak Prescott
Prescott hasn’t gotten Dallas over the hump yet, but he’s had some excellent statistical seasons and is firmly entrenched as a top 10 QB.
#10 Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow is a promising young quarterback, but he has gotten way too much credit for taking the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 2021. For the most part, Burrow was pretty average in the playoffs. It was the Bengals’ defense that was winning them games. That being said, Burrow had a great regular season and is ahead of schedule. If he can cut down on turnovers and sacks, he has the potential to be a tier 1 QB.
#11 Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray is the last quarterback in tier 3. The reason I have him here and not in tier 4 is because I believe that Kyler Murray is worth a massive contract extension. Murray on his own is not enough to carry a team to Super Bowl status. But if you let Kyler Murray go, you will have a hard time finding someone better to replace him.
Tier 4 (This guy is above average, but if you’re paying him 40 million dollars, you are probably making a mistake)
#12 Jameis Winston
I’m not expecting anyone to agree with me here, but I own beachfront property on Jameis Winston Island, and I will be holding onto that property until the day I die. Through seven games last year, Sean Payton had Jameis playing at a near MVP level. The Saints were 5-2, and Jameis sported a touchdown to interception ratio of 14:3. In 2022, his weapons will be upgraded from Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Deonte Harris to Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry. So, expect big things from Jameis in 2022.
#13 Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan got the absolute shit knocked out of him last year behind a terrible Falcons offensive line. But, even at 36 years old, Ryan stood tough, made good throws, and helped a bad Atlanta team overachieve. In Indianapolis, Ryan will get to play behind one of the best offensive lines in football. I think Matty Ice still has a couple of good years of football left.
#14 Derek Carr
The Raiders decided to give Derek Carr 121 million dollars over three years, so, clearly, they don’t view it as a mistake. Carr has survived a lot of turnover in the Raiders franchise and deserves credit for that. However, the fact remains that Derek Carr is yet to win a playoff game in his eight-year career.
#15 Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins is a perfect example of a tier-4 quarterback. Everything was sweet when he was playing under the franchise tag, but once he got top-level money and was compared to top-level quarterbacks, it was clear he did not belong in that category. Cousins has provided the Vikings with an upgrade at quarterback. Still, they have yet to return to the NFC championship game with Cousins because his contract caused them to lose some key contributors. And Kirk isn’t talented enough to offset their absence.
#16 Ryan Tannehill
I think the Titans realized they reached the end of the road with Tannehill when they decided to draft Malik Willis in the third round. The Titans did an excellent job resurrecting Tannehill’s career. Unfortunately, two awful playoff performances from Tannehill have caused them to go one and done the last two years.
Tier 5 (These guys have potential, just be competent and they should be good)
#17 Mac Jones
The fifth quarterback selected in the 2021 NFL draft, Mac Jones had the best rookie season out of the class. While I think he ultimately will get passed by Lawrence, Lance, and Fields, Jones had a great rookie season and should be the Patriots starting QB for a long time.
#18 Jalen Hurts
As much as I tried to correct the narrative around Jalen Hurts, as a man with 76 Twitter followers, there was only so much I could do. I kept hearing about how “Hurts couldn’t win a Super Bowl, which I found ridiculously unfair. Hurts, for all intents and purposes, was a first-year starter. Instead of being compared to Super Bowl winners, he should’ve been being compared to other first starters where he would’ve compared favorably. Furthermore, with a 1.5 million dollar cap hit, no quarterback in the league provides better value on their current contract than Jalen Hurts.
#19 Trevor Lawrence
In one botched Urban Meyer season in which he through passes to Jamal Agnew and Laquon Treadwell, Trevor Lawrence has gone from generational prospect to bust. While the Jaguars have done their best to sabotage his career. I still think a successful career with multiple all-pro appearances is the more likely outcome for T-Law.
#20 Trey Lance
Lance is a challenging evaluation because it has been almost two years since he was a team’s starting quarterback. However, Lance put some good things on film last year, he has excellent instincts, and all of his mistakes should be correctable with coaching. In addition, Lance has elite physical tools and is in the best situation out of any of the 2021 QBs.
#21 Justin Fields
I loved Fields as a prospect and still think he has a chance to be good, but the Bears are making it tough on him. The Bears are drowning in dead money in 2022, but if Fields can improve next year amidst a challenging situation, he should get to take the field with a much improved supporting cast in 2023.
Tier 6 (This tier is reserved for Carson Wentz and Carson Wentz only)
#22 Carson Wentz
I couldn’t put anyone else in the Carson Wentz tier because there is nobody like Carson Wentz. His ability to make an elite throw one play and follow it up with the most mind-numbing mistake you have ever seen on the next play is truly unmatched.
Tier 7 (These guys were drafted high, but they probably stink)
#23 Zach Wilson
Zach Wilson cut down on his picks at the end of last year. However, he still has a long way to go as it pertains to playing within the structure of an NFL offense. Despite missing four games, Wilson led the league in yards lost on sacks by a large margin, losing 370 yards. The Jets have given Wilson a decent supporting cast, so if he’s terrible again in 2022, it will be apparent that he is not the guy.
#24 Jared Goff
Goff is not worthy of the money the Rams gave him, but he’s a veteran quarterback who isn’t going to lose you games.
#25 Davis Mills
I didn’t give Davis Mills any chance of being an NFL starter, so he has already defied my wildest expectations. The Texans have to be feeling good with Mills, as he’s probably better than all of the quarterbacks that were just selected in last month’s draft. The jury is still out on Mills, but his third-round draft capital will make him easy to move if he proves to be bad.
#26 Tua Tagovailoa
Arm strength was never Tua’s calling card, even so, his arm strength looks completely diminished compared to when he was at Alabama. The hip injury could be more significant than was let on because NFL Tua just hasn’t looked the same as the prospect we fell in love with at Alabama. A combination of a weak arm and slow decision-making makes it almost impossible for him to succeed in the NFL.
#27 Daniel Jones
I feel like I’ve seen all I’ve needed to see with Daniel Jones. But, I suppose I will give him a chance to play outside of a Jason Garrett offense. Jones doesn’t impress as a passer and has fumbled 36 times in 38 games.
Tier 8 (If this guy is your quarterback, you have already given up on the season)
#28 Mitch Trubisky
Mitch restored some of his value on the bench in Buffalo. Meanwhile, his old coach Matt Nagy made himself look like an absolute clown. The Steelers have a good supporting cast around Mitch. However, they wouldn’t have used a first-rounder on Kenny Pickett if they believed in Mitch.
#29 Marcus Mariota
I thought we were done with Marcus Mariota as a starter, but the Atlanta Falcons are not. (Just let Cordarrelle Patterson play QB, cowards)
#30 Drew Lock
If you thought the Seahawks were run-heavy with Russell Wilson as their QB, just wait until you see what happens with Drew Lock. I can’t tell if Pete Carroll is lying, but he seems to think there’s some untapped potential with Drew Lock. As if we don’t have three years of film on him. I mean, the guy lost a quarterback competition to Teddy Bridgewater in the year 2021; what else do we need to see??
#31 Sam Darnold
I pulled out the thesaurus for this one. Here are some words to describe Sam Darnold’s time as an NFL quarterback; atrocious, abominable, fallacious, diddly, garbage, erroneous, and dissatisfactory. Remember that time he got mono?
Tier 9 (If this guy is your quarterback, you’re going to hell)
#32 Deshaun Watson
Deshaun Watson is a bad person. The people responsible for giving him 230 million guaranteed US dollars are also very, very bad.