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Trey Lance is one of the biggest question marks in the 2021 NFL Draft. He was forced to opt out this season as North Dakota State opted to not have a season, but he was given one game to show his talents. Trey Lance did not have the best farewell game, and it has left scouts and NFL front offices with even more questions than before.
Trey Lance Stats and Measurables
Position: QB
School: North Dakota State University
Height: 6’4″
Weight: 226 lbs
2019 Stats:
Passing: 2786 YDS / 66.9 Comp % / 28 TD / 0 INT
Rushing: 169 ATT / 1100 YDS / 6.5 AVG / 14 TD
2020 Stats (One Game):
Passing: 149 YDS / 50 Comp % / 2 TD / 1 INT
Rushing: 15 ATT / 143 YDS / 9.5 AVG / 2 TD
Pros
- Athleticism: Lance is incredibly athletic and an oddly powerful runner. He runs guys into the dirt and has great agility to bounce out of blocks and or defenders. Trey Lance can flip a 30 yard run easy from a play that looks like it was dead before it was started. Lance has a great build so injury shouldn’t be a major concern.
- Ball off platform: Trey Lance is one of the best in the class at throwing off the platform in tough situations. he has the unique ability to be able scramble out of the pocket with speed with his eyes up the field at all times. It is uncommon to see lance with his head down outside the pocket, or staring down a single receiver. He has good poise when outside of the pocket, and his arm is strong enough where with the single flick of the wrist, he can sling the ball 40 yards down the field.
- Has the ability to throw a great deep ball: Lance has shown throughout season that he has a great deep ball and when he’s on its unstoppable, his issue is consistency. In some games he will look like one of the best quarterbacks to come out of the draft, but in other games he looks like a quarterback who desperately needs to work on his deep ball. All major issues with Lance come down to consistency and game experience.
- Pocket Awareness: Lance has a great feel for the pocket and knows when to leave the pocket. He usually does not take off prematurely and keeps his eyes down field until the last second inside and outside of the pocket. Trey has the unique 6th sense to feel when an oncoming pass rusher is barreling towards him, and evades him right before the defender can make contact. These plays will get riskier in the NFL, but if he keeps up his keen feel for pressure it will be an invaluable asset for him wherever he goes.
- Mechanics: Upper body mechanics are great. Trey has a great throwing motion with speed, but the lower body can use some tightening with keeping the feet happy. Lance has a good throwing base and leg length, and with the help of QB coach Quincy Avery, these issues can be cleaned up fast
Cons:
- Consistency: Trey Lance has his flashes of greatness, but against his toughest opponents he either folds or shines and there isn’t an in between. Lance is a project quarterback, and this is no shock to anyone. Project quarterbacks have all the gifts and traits, but their main issue is consistency, same with Trey Lance. If Lance can figure out how to become a more consistent passer, he can be a star in the NFL.
- Ball Placement: Trey has an issue with his ball placement sometimes, and its concerning because the throws he puts on the receivers back shoulders on any middle of the field throws have a good shot at getting picked in the NFL. Trey needs to lead receivers better, as he leaves many yards to be desired. This is a relatively easy fix for Lance, and will immediately boost his numbers and repour with teammates.
- One year wonder: As good as Trey Lance’s season has been, it was one year on a stacked NDSU team against some scrub FCS players, a less body of work in this situation is incredibly hard to credit . We see small school quarterbacks succeed all the time, but there is always a risk factor with drafting them. As the NFL evolves this may become less of an issue, but it is something to watch come draft night.
- Missing better throws: Trey has a tendency to miss better throws and instead take the easier more open throw. He still makes a good read, but there is a better one to make. This will be a much harder issue to fix, as it can be a result of confidence in one’s ability, the lack of ability, or a combination of the two.
Consensus: Trey Lance is by farther the biggest boom or bust prospect in this draft. His unique physical and mental ability will have NFL teams drooling, but his lack of experience against good teams and in general will give front offices great pause. Trey Lance is QB4 in a stacked NFL draft class, and a team who has a good bridge situation would benefit from drafting Lance and having him sit a year or two. If developed correctly, Lance can easily become the second best quarterback out of this class, maybe even the best. Teams like the Falcons, Panthers, 49ers, and Colts would be great landing spots for Lance.
NFL Comp: Randal Cunningham
Prospect Grade: 86.5
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